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Jan 9
Reflections on New Hampshire: Democrats

Congratulations to Hillary Clinton.

Can anyone say Bradley effect? Leave it to a New England state...

This is as bad news for Barack Obama as it is good news for Clinton. Obama was leading by double digits in some polls. He even raised expectations on himself by going around New Hampshire in the last few days saying that if he won, he was going to be the next President. He never mentioned what would happen if he lost.

Clinton is the front runner again, but this race is still wide open. Both candidates have a lot cash on hand, and are tied in national polls. It heads south (South Carolina, Jan. 26) and west (Nevada, Jan. 19) next (they are skipping Michigan). While last night's polling debacle makes you think twice about polls, Southern states don't exhibit the Bradley effect; and they make up a good portion of the February 5th states.

Obama will probably fare well in the South (where there are larger black  Democratic electorates), while Clinton has the northeast locked up. There's no telling what will happen in the west; unless the Bradley effect comes back into play...

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