Congratulations to John McCain.
McCain is on the way to Michigan this morning where he is attempting to deliver the final knock out blow to Mitt Romney in Michigan's primary less than a week from now.
Although this race appears to be wide open on the surface; closer inspection reveals that the primaries have succeeded in winnowing the field.
Iowa eliminated Fred Thompson; New Hampshire eliminated Romney. While there are comeback-from-the-dead scenarios from Romney and Thompson, they aren't pretty. For Romney, it would take a convincing win in his home state of Michigan. And for Thompson, it would take a win in South Carolina where he is currently polling in fourth and will get no bump from last night's results.
Ron Paul and Rudy Giuliani are both helped by Romney's faltering. McCain and Mike Huckabee may have a momentum advantage, but Giuliani and Paul have the money. Unless Romney deems himself competitive and wants to tap his fortune (cause his fundraising is effectively done now), Giuliaini and Paul will have the air waves to themselves in most of the February 5th states.
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I'm not sure I understand any of your analysis.
First, Romney and Thompson are not "out of it". Mitt is certainly hurt a lot, he does not require a "convincing" win in Michigan to win the nomination. Fred, from day one, was hanging his hopes on South Carolina. Guess what--that hasn't happened yet.
Second, I understand that you have a fondness for Ron Paul--but if Iowa and New Hampshire killed Mitt and Fred, then Paul is so dead he is cold. He is doing FAR better than I ever expected--he is getting around 10% of the vote. If he were to run as a third party, he would get less than 5% of the vote! He will get virtually no electoral votes. He has no chance in the world to win (place, or show).
The reality is that NO ONE will drop out by super Tuesday. The race is so wide open, that no one of the top 5 will drop out. They will all focus on the states that they are best suited for in the Super Tuesday situation.
I personally think that what we now have is a virtual guarantee of a brokered convention. As the chance of that increases, there is less of a chance that anyone will drop out.
Posted by: Joel | January 9, 2008 11:40 AM | Permalink to Comment