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Jan23
Thompson's Exit

tnflag.jpgAs the curtain falls on the Thompson presidential campaign, Tennessee newspapers today are rife with speculation and analysis.

From the Tennessean:

While Thompson's campaign was not successful, he could have an impact on who receives the nomination. Thompson could encourage his social conservative supporters to back McCain.

Huckabee has blamed Thompson for his second-place showing in South Carolina, claiming that Thompson stayed in the race to siphon off social conservatives from him.

Thompson's withdrawal probably will help Huckabee in the South, said Bruce Oppenheimer, political science professor at Vanderbilt University. A Thompson endorsement of McCain might make a difference in Thompson's home state of Tennessee, but it isn't clear if it would have any impact elsewhere, Oppenheimer said.

Thompson aides said they believe he would agree if asked to run as vice president. Oppenheimer said he had no idea whether Thompson would be asked to be a vice presidential candidate, but he doubted that McCain would offer him the job because McCain is 71 and Thompson is 65.

The idea of a Thompson candidacy, first floated in March 2007, did far better than the actual campaign. Before announcing, he vaulted into second place in national polls. He still held that position when he formally entered the race in early September but steadily declined.

His leisurely speaking style was branded as lackluster by the national media. Thompson acknowledged in Iowa that he was not fueled by a burning ambition to be president.

From the Chattanoogan:

Rep. Zach Wamp, who helped urged Thompson to make the race, said he was "a thoroughbred candidate who was right on the issues."

But he said the Thompson campaign failed to gain traction and got too far behind to catch up.

In an interview on WGOW Talk Radio, Rep. Wamp said Sen. Thompson would make a good choice for vice president.

He said he believes John McCain now is the GOP frontrunner, and he said former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani
has fallen too far behind.

He said he believes some Thompson backers will join the McCain campaign, while others will support Mike Huckabee. He said he does not expect that many will back Mitt Romney.

Rep. Wamp said he does not expect Sen. Thompson to make an endorsement.

From the Memphis Commercial Appeal:

Huckabee, from neighboring Arkansas, has former Tennessee GOP chairman Chip Saltsman running his campaign. Romney is backed by GOP financier Ted Welch of Nashville. McCain campaigned for Sen. Bob Corker here only 14 months ago.

Hat tip:
Tennessee Politics


3 Comments/Trackbacks




I find it interesting that so many think that McCain will be the destination for Fred supporters. Based on the bloggers and various surveys I have seen, Romney is the preferred destination for about 50% of the Fred Heads. The others spread out less than 15% each.

From an idea point of view, Fred supporters are very much closer to Mitt than any other--even if we don't believe that Mitt will necessarily hold to the tenets of conservatism.

I agree that they won't go to McCain, but I think they will split about 65/35 Huckabee/Romney. All of the social conservatives will go to Huckabee while all the fiscal conservatives will go to Romney.

In the SC exit polls, Thompson took something like 41% of self-identified 'very conservative' voters and Huckabee took 43% (McCain had like 20 something); it's a good bet 90% of that is going to Huckabee.

I think Huck already had all of the "social conservatives" that he was going to get. Huck is a one note conservative and those that went for Fred were looking for more than one note. Mitt was, more or less, out of the picture in South Carolina. This will be different is the remaining states.

Huck also disparaged Fred after he dropped out. This is not lost on FredHeads.

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