Republican and Conservative political analysis and commentary

Fidel Castro, the infamous dictator of Cuba, announced today that he will resign as "President" of Cuba and hand the reigns to his younger brother Raul.

A TIME article from 2006 when Fidel was briefly incapacitated sheds some light on what a Raul dictatorship could bring:

Raul is also called "the practical Castro," and when and if he does succeed Fidel permanently, many Cuba watchers speculate that he'll actually bring a less confrontational, more reform-minded rule to the communist island. "I think he will try to adopt more of a China economic model, probably continuing much of the harsh political regime but allowing more private enterprise and loosening foreign investment rules," says [Brian] Latell, a senior researcher at the University of Miami's Cuba Institute and author of the recently published book After Fidel. "And I think he's also going to want better relations and more dialogue with the U.S."

But at the same time, Raul may carry more perestroika in his political DNA than Fidel does. When the Soviet Union's lavish economic aid to Cuba disappeared in the early 1990s and many Cubans faced possible starvation, Raul convinced a reluctant Fidel to reopen the island's private agricultural markets as an incentive to increase food production. "Beans are more important than rifles," he insisted. Latell agrees: "It was Raul, not Fidel, who realized that Cuba was going to have to pursue economic reforms to survive" and he put many of his military officers in charge of new enterprises like tourism. In After Fidel, Latell writes that Raul, "unlike his brother, has never been motivated by an ego-charged quest for fame and glory or internationalist gratification. He does not thrive on conflict and confrontation as Fidel has since childhood. He worries more about the economic hardships the Cuban people endures, and is likely to more flexible and compassionate in power."

His record, however, is less than flattering:

Raul Castro has always been known as Fidel's enforcer — the ideologically hard-line, iron-fisted watchdog of his big brother's regime. It's hardly an undeserved rep, one he started building by overseeing the summary execution of scores of soldiers loyal to former Cuban dictator Fulgencio Batista after Fidel overthrew Batista in 1959.

Other veteran Cuba analysts, not surprisingly, insist that this is too charitable a characterization of a man so long associated with an oppressive military and security apparatus, responsible for imprisoning and in many instances torturing thousands of dissidents. And a number of factors could keep Raul on the hard line even after Fidel dies. For one thing, the largesse of Fidel's left-wing and oil-rich ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, has helped significantly to keep Cuba's economy afloat, lessening the urgency of economic reforms that many had expected under Fidel in recent years. (Cuba may also be buoyed by recent discoveries of ample crude reserves off its own coast.) What's more, just beneath Raul sit a number of younger and ideologically purer communist officials, like 40-year-old Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, who are known derisively by many Cubans as "los Taliban" and could limit Raul's room to maneuver on any potential reform.

Raul's rise to power could bring about changes similar to those that have been seen in China in the last decades. A free market minded dictator can go a long way towards bringing about market reforms and raising people out of poverty; even if he concurrently denies the right to life.

While Cuba lacks the wealth of resources and under mobilized labor force that China does; it does have resources such as beautiful beaches and a rich culture that could attract international tourism and be a boon for its economy. And that could go a long way towards Cuba entering into normal relations with the rest of the world.

Maybe in our lifetimes we will have the chance to dance on the beaches of Havana.